Join Steven and Friends TONIGHT for "What is Your Black Swan?" with Warriors for Life (WFL)

Col (Ret) Mikel Burroughs
12 hours ago
4 min read

Join our Volunteer, Air Force Veteran, Peer Support Specialist, and Writer/Author Steven Bates TONIGHT for "Mid-Week Musings!" edition of Warriors for Life (WFL) Online, sponsored and presented by Victory for Veterans, Inc. (VFV).

We are asking everyone to share who we are and what support that Victory for Veterans, Inc. (VFV) is providing via WFL. If you know someone who is a veteran, first responder or a family member/caregiver, please ask them to join us for at least one meeting so they can learn more about what we do and how they can share their wisdom with others who may be able to learn from them.

TONIGHT's Topic: "What is Your Black Swan?"

"The term Black Swan has been around for centuries. In 17th-century London, a Black Swan, because one had never been seen, referred to an impossible thing, an unimaginable occurrence, a thing so rare it would never happen. Then it happened. Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh went to Western Australia in 1697 and saw what had never been seen before - a black swan. Worldviews were shattered. The unthinkable had occurred. Suddenly, here was the thing described as impossible and unimaginable strutting in real life across the globe. Life had to be rethought. As veterans and citizens of this world, we have experienced a few Black Swans in our lifetime. Off the top of my head, there's the shuttle disasters, two of them, and then 9/11. What about Pearl Harbor? Black Swan theory states that in hindsight, we could have predicted the occurrences, but in reality, never imagined the possibilities. Such is the life of a veteran. PTSD could be considered a Black Swan. Something we never imagined happening to us, but has had the most significant impact on our lives. Other Black Swans could include divorce out of the blue, bankruptcy, etc. So how do we handle encountering a Black Swan in our lives? How do we rethink the impossible once it has happened?"

The "Black Swan" theory, when applied to a person's mental health, refers to

rare, unexpected, and unpredictable life events that have a catastrophic or transformative impact on an individual's psychological well-being. Popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the concept emphasizes that just as people once assumed all swans were white (making a black swan impossible), individuals often assume their lives will follow a predictable path, leaving them unprepared for sudden, seismic mental health disruptions.

Here is a breakdown of the Black Swan theory in the context of mental health:

Core Characteristics of a Personal "Black Swan"

Unpredictability (Rarity): These events are outliers that lie outside the realm of regular, daily expectations. Nothing in the person's past experience could have convincingly pointed to its possibility (e.g., sudden onset of severe illness, unexpected traumatic loss).
Extreme Impact: When these events happen, they cause massive, often catastrophic, disruption to an individual's mental state, leading to acute stress, PTSD, panic, or long-term mental health struggles.
Retrospective Rationalization (Hindsight Bias): After the event occurs, the individual or those around them may feel it was "obvious" or "bound to happen," creating a false sense that it was predictable all along. This can cause the person to blame themselves for not foreseeing the event.

Examples in Mental Health

Sudden Mental Breakdown/Psychosis: A person with no history of mental illness experiences a sudden psychotic break triggered by intense, unexpected stress, as dramatized in the film Black Swan.
Sudden Loss/Trauma: The unexpected death of a loved one, a sudden firing, or a traumatic accident that completely shatters an individual's sense of safety and self-worth.
Global Events Affecting Personal Health: A global pandemic (like COVID-19) acts as a "black swan" for mental health, forcing massive, immediate shifts in daily routines, social isolation, and anxiety levels.

Coping and the "Antifragile" Mindset

The theory suggests that because these events are unpredictable, trying to forecast them is futile. Instead, the focus should be on building resilience and "antifragility"—the ability to not just survive a shock, but to grow stronger from it.

Building Robustness: Strengthening social support systems, developing emotional intelligence, and maintaining physical health to withstand unexpected stressors.
Embracing Adaptability: Learning to pivot and reframe one's life narrative after a traumatic, unforeseen change.
Acceptance of Uncertainty: Reducing chronic anxiety by acknowledging that the future is inherently unpredictable and focusing on adapting to the present moment.

In summary, the Black Swan theory in mental health highlights that severe psychological challenges often stem from unexpected, rare, and disruptive life events, and that true strength lies in a person's ability to adapt and build resilience to the unknown.

Coping with "Black Swan" events—rare, high-impact, unpredictable shocks—requires building antifragile systems rather than trying to predict the unpredictable. Key strategies include fostering extreme adaptability, ensuring high-level diversification (financial and operational), maintaining significant redundancy (savings/buffers), practicing scenario planning for extreme outcomes, and cultivating a, resilient, "continuous learning" mindset.

Individual and Organizational Coping Mechanisms

Build Redundancy and Buffers: Maintain significant cash reserves, diverse skill sets, and flexible, non-linear plans to absorb sudden shocks without collapsing.
Implement a "Barbell Strategy.": This involves taking extreme, calculated risks in one area while being hyper-conservative in another, avoiding "middle-of-the-road" risks that are vulnerable to unexpected crises.
Scenario Planning & Stress Testing: Move away from relying on historical data, which cannot predict Black Swans, and instead, simulate extreme, "what-if" scenarios.
Cultivate Agility and Adaptability: Foster a culture, both personally and professionally, that values pivoting quickly rather than sticking to rigid, long-term forecasts.
Mental Flexibility and Resilience: Train to reframe negative events, manage emotional responses to disruption, and accept that the future is inherently unpredictable.
Diversification: Spread risk across different assets, technologies, or business lines to ensure that one failure does not cause total catastrophe.
Continuous Learning: Promote a culture of curiosity and knowledge-sharing to quickly identify and adapt to new, unfamiliar threats.

Key Mindset Shifts

Assume Survival, Not Prediction: Accept that Black Swans are, by definition, unpredictable, so focus resources on surviving the consequences.
Embrace Uncertainty: Shift from attempting to forecast to preparing to navigate volatility.

Join Air Force veteran, author, and Peer Support Specialist Steven Bates with the Warriors for Life Mid-Week Musings Peer Support group as we discuss Black Swans and how to deal with them.

Warriors for Life (WFL) Online "Mid-Week Musings!" edition presented by Victory for Veterans, Inc. (VFV) — Wednesday (TONIGHT), February 25, 2026, @ 4:30 PM PT, 5:30 PM MT, 6:30 PM CT, & 7:30 PM ET

Join Zoom Meeting: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/87440882846

Thank you,

Steven Bates

Air Force Veteran, Writer/Author, Peer Support Specialist, &

Volunteer Facilitator, Victory for Veterans, Inc.